A Holistic Evaluation of Climate Change Drivers Through a Systems Lens

 

   Earth's climate fluctuates over millennia between ice ages and warmer interglacial periods, influenced by subtle changes in orbital cycles known as Milankovitch cycles. These cycles related to variations in Earth's tilt, wobble, and orbit can alter the distribution of solar irradiation on the planet and contribute to past cyclical glaciation and warming.

     During the current Holocene interglacial, some scientists argue natural climate drivers like solar intensity shifts, volcanic activity, ocean cycles like the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and even cosmic rays modulate cloud formation and precipitation patterns. There is evidence that pre-industrial climate swings like the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age occurred due to these natural drivers.

     However, some discuss that warming observed in recent decades appears too rapid and beyond the bounds of these natural cycles. While Milankovitch orbital cycles occur over thousands of years, and ocean cycles over decades, recent warming has outpaced these natural variations.

     Anthropogenic (human caused) greenhouse gas emissions provide another potential driver within the climate system. Physics supports CO2 as a greenhouse gas, though uncertainty remains around precise real-world climate sensitivity and feedback effects. Questions also persist around surface temperature records and historical proxy data limitations.  The expansion of cities and built up areas may also contribute - think of in terms of how a building stays warm after sunset, and multiply all the buildings together.

     A holistic systems perspective avoids definitive either-or causation claims, recognizing the complexity of the climate system. Anthropogenic forcing may be one significant factor interacting with many natural drivers. Systems thinking integrates multiple viewpoints, while supporting prudent mitigation actions like emissions reductions in case human activities are substantially contributing to warming. A nuanced systems approach can help advance climate science and policy.  With this many inputs, we can neither assign full blame nor grant amnesty to a particular variable.

     As conservatives, we need to take a balanced approach to potential human causality.  Conserving fuel, funds, and emissions remain central to our core philosophy - as long as we also preserve the rights of the individual.